Winds of Winter 2021 release date in DOUBT after George RR Martin progress calculation

Yesterday, the 71-year-old gave a long-awaited update on his writing progress for The Winds of Winter and its release. Last year, George RR Martin set a personal deadline of July 2020 but now he’s pushed it back to 2021. He wrote on his blog: “I can always visit Wellington next year when I hope that both Covid-19 and THE WINDS OF WINTER will be done.”

However, based on sample chapters shared and his progress updates, one fan has calculated what they believe to be his progress, which should be taken with a pinch of salt.

ASOIAF Reddit user noodleshopowner points out that Martin intends The Winds of Winter to be around a 1500 page manuscript.

The author updated in his latest post: “It’s going to be a huge book, and I still have a long way to go.”

But the fan estimates that he still has well over 1000 pages to go.


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They wrote: “Since he hopes to finish the book by the end of 2021 this would leave him 557 days to finish Winds.

“For this to happen he would have to finish 2.14383121338 pages a day at minimum (not counting revision).

“The most he has ever written was when he had written 150 pages per month (or about 5 pages a day) when he was writing A Storm of Swords. In today’s blog post, he had stated that he definitely can’t write at that pace anymore.”

Martin wrote: “I do wish they would go faster, of course. Way way back in 1999, when I was deep in the writing of A STORM OF SWORDS, I was averaging about 150 pages of manuscript a month.”

The author added: “I fear I shall never recapture that pace again. Looking back, I am not sure how I did it then. A fever indeed.”

The fan continued: “The longest it has ever taken for him to release a book (not counting the current drought) is 2,094 days.

“Of course some of that time is time it took for publishing and editing, but it still took well over 1000 days. (probably even longer since he had been working on it when he was writing fast as well).

“That is about 0.72110792741 pages per day (not counting revised and scrapped pages).”

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They added: “So for GRRM to finish Winds in time for 2022 he will have to write 2.97296858333 times as fast as he did when writing Dance. 🙁

“So is it possible to finish Winds…. Well obviously yes. IT IS POSSIBLE. But more importantly, will it happen?

“Considering I am only going off of information known by me it might. It is extremely likely that he has written much more than I had in my estimate of around 306 pages.

“As I have said twice before, I am using a low-ball estimate since not much is known.”

The fan concluded: “Winds has an estimated 267.650262381 pages from known finished chapters.

“And another 38.2357517688 based off of speculation.

“Using this estimate, for GRRM to finish the book by 2022 it would take him writing more than 2 pages per day (not counting revision.)”

But who knows, maybe Martin can shift up a gear? He certainly has been since being up in his cabin.

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