Oscars 2023 Predictions: Who Will Win Best Picture, Actor and Actress?
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” is the favorite, but “All Quiet on the Western Front” could be a spoiler. Here’s how our expert is marking his ballot.
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By Kyle Buchanan
Best Picture
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Elvis”
✓ “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
“Tár”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Triangle of Sadness”
“Women Talking”
Before awards season began, who would have thought that “Everything Everywhere All at Once” would go from underdog to top dog? After all, it’s a sci-fi comedy with martial arts and a dildo fight scene — not exactly what comes to mind when you think of Oscar bait. And yet, this eccentric hit had enough heart and ingenuity to earn top honors from the actors, writers, producers and directors guilds, a clean sweep only four other films in history have ever managed. Those movies all went on to win the best picture Oscar, and “Everything Everywhere” is well-positioned to pull off the same feat.
That being said, there is a contingent of older voters in the academy who remain baffled by it, and they’ll probably opt for a straightforward blockbuster like “Top Gun: Maverick” or especially Netflix’s World War I saga “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which has surged at the last minute and pulled off an eyebrow-raising best film victory with the British voting body BAFTA. Since neither film earned an Oscar nomination for its directing or acting, the odds are slim for a come-from-behind victory over “Everything Everywhere,” which was nominated across the board. But on a night full of close races, even this category still feels fluid.
Best Director
Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
✓ Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”
Todd Field, “Tár”
Ruben Ostlund, “Triangle of Sadness”
Since “Everything Everywhere” co-directors Kwan and Scheinert took the top prize from the Directors Guild of America, they’re almost certain to repeat here, as 17 of the last 20 DGA winners have. It’s true that the academy has recently been inclined to split the best picture and best director trophies between two films, but I don’t think a compelling alternative to Kwan and Scheinert has emerged: Though “Tár” director Field will collect some highbrow votes and traditionalists may be inclined to pick Spielberg, “Everything Everywhere” has the technical razzle-dazzle that typically clinches this win.
Best Actor
Austin Butler, “Elvis”
Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
✓ Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”
Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”
Bill Nighy, “Living”
Colin Farrell is wonderful in “Banshees,” but voters may underrate him when he’s playing a character who looks and talks like, well, Colin Farrell. Time and time again, the academy has shown a preference for actors who transform, and two such performances are vying here, though each comes with a caveat: Fraser donned prosthetics to play a 600-pound recluse in “The Whale,” but a best actor winner almost always hails from a best picture nominee, and his film didn’t make the cut. Meanwhile, Butler played a famous historical figure (and even did his own singing) in a movie that is up for best picture. But voters tend to prefer someone more seasoned in this category, and the 31-year-old Butler would be one of the youngest to ever win here. Ultimately, I don’t think people will hold the mixed reception for “The Whale” against SAG Award winner Fraser: At 54, his return to the spotlight has captivated Hollywood and his speech would surely be one of the night’s most emotional.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, “Tár”
Ana de Armas, “Blonde”
Andrea Riseborough, “To Leslie”
Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans”
✓ Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Unless Riseborough pulls off a win even more shocking than her surprise nomination, this battle royal comes down to Blanchett and Yeoh, the season’s top prize-earners. Both women are so fabulous in what will almost certainly be their signature roles that I’m hoping for a deeply unlikely tie, but I do think the scales will tip toward Yeoh in the end: Blanchett already has two Oscars, and Yeoh’s first win would be historic in a category where no women of color have won since Halle Berry over two decades ago. If voters want to give this telecast the sort of memorable, dream-come-true moment that will be referenced for years to come, they’ve got to pick Yeoh.
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway”
Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans”
Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
✓ Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Like supporting-actor winner Troy Kotsur (“CODA”) last year, Quan has dominated this awards season with his moving acceptance speeches and compelling personal narrative. Oscar voters love a comeback story, and Quan, who returned to acting after experiencing childhood fame in “The Goonies” and “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom,” is finally getting the opportunities that eluded him once he came of age. It also doesn’t hurt that he delivers the linchpin line in “Everything Everywhere” when his swoony suitor tells Michelle Yeoh, “In another life, I would have really liked just doing laundry and taxes with you.” Could anyone fail to fall in love with Quan in that moment? And could any Oscar voter deny him this win?
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Hong Chau, “The Whale”
✓ Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Though Bassett came on strong earlier this season with wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, she’s since fallen short with voting bodies that have more significant overlap with the academy: In London, the BAFTA went to the Irish actress Condon, while Curtis pulled out a surprise win at the SAG Awards. Though any of those women could triumph, I’m picking Condon in a squeaker: As Colin Farrell’s sister in “Banshees,” she has more screen time and subplots than her competitors and manages to be the most relatable character in the movie. It’s also telling that the last eight supporting-actress winners, from Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) to Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”), were the sole winners from their films: If voters don’t want “Banshees” to go home empty-handed, this is the category where they’ll make sure it’s taken care of.
The Run-Up to the 2023 Oscars
The 95th Academy Awards will be presented on March 12 in Los Angeles.
Original Screenplay
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
✓ “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
“Tár”
“Triangle of Sadness”
“Tár” is the most erudite nominee and “Banshees” the most quotable, but is there a contender more ostentatiously original than “Everything Everywhere”? That one-of-a-kind feeling is the quality that voters prize most in this category, which often rewards young auteurs on the rise like Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”) and Jordan Peele (“Get Out”). Since the modern path to a best-picture win almost always runs through the screenplay categories, there’s no reason “Everything Everywhere” writer-directors Scheinert and Kwan should lose here.
Adapted Screenplay
✓ “All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
“Living”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Women Talking”
“Women Talking” auteur Sarah Polley won this race at the Writers Guild Awards, and Oscar voters have shown time and time again that they’re wowed by actors who write: Just look at former screenplay winners like Emma Thompson and Matt Damon and Ben Affleck. But “All Quiet” has mounted a much stronger case for the best picture Oscar than “Women Talking” and needs to win its screenplay race in order to have a credible chance at the top spot. That’s why I’m projecting an “All Quiet” victory here, but if Polley does prevail, it’s a good sign that “Everything Everywhere” will cruise to its best-picture win unopposed.
Animated Feature
✓ “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
“The Sea Beast”
“Turning Red”
When “The Shape of Water” won best picture a few years ago, I talked to a voter who spelled out exactly what had put the film over the top: “When I saw the movie, I liked it. But when I heard Guillermo del Toro talk about it afterwards, I loved it.” Academy members are so delighted by that film’s genial Mexican auteur that they even squeezed his dark, expensive noir “Nightmare Alley” into last year’s best-picture race after most pundits had pronounced it dead. So expect his stop-motion “Pinocchio” to be the victor here over box office hit “Puss in Boots.”
Documentary Feature
“All That Breathes”
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“Fire of Love”
“A House Made of Splinters”
✓ “Navalny”
After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spent the last year beaming into Hollywood events like the Cannes Film Festival and Golden Globes, I think academy members will be inclined to cast their votes for “Navalny,” a thrilling documentary about the imprisoned Russian opposition leader. The film follows the Putin critic Aleksei Navalny up until his incarceration and contains a killer sequence in which, having recovered from a poison attack, he manages to track down and bait his poisoner into a confession. That footage isn’t just golden — it’s the sort of thing that wins gold statuettes.
International Feature
✓ “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Germany
“Argentina, 1985,” Argentina
“Close,” Belgium
“EO,” Poland
“The Quiet Girl,” Ireland
“Close,” but no cigar. Nice to know you, “The Quiet Girl” and “Argentina, 1985.” And to “EO,” we say XO. But let’s be real: The best-picture nominee never loses in this category, so a victory for Germany and “All Quiet on the Western Front” is one of the easiest calls of the night.
Cinematography
✓ “All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”
“Elvis”
“Empire of Light”
“Tár”
No woman has ever won this category, and “Elvis” cinematographer Mandy Walker has a good shot at becoming the first. Still, I suspect more voters will choose James Friend’s striking tableaus of war in “All Quiet on the Western Front.”
Original Song
“Applause” (“Tell It Like a Woman”)
“Hold My Hand” (“Top Gun: Maverick”)
“Lift Me Up” (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
✓ “Naatu Naatu” (“RRR”)
“This Is a Life” (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
This race features two of pop music’s biggest stars: Super Bowl headliner Rihanna, who sang a sensitive ballad for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” and former winner Lady Gaga, who wailed over the closing credits of “Top Gun: Maverick.” But both will lose to “Naatu Naatu,” which sparks a fantastic dance-off in “RRR.” Since that Indian blockbuster came oh-so-close to making the best-picture lineup, this category provides an easy place for fans to reward it.
Original Score
✓ “All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Babylon”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
“Babylon” ends with a hellzapoppin’ history-of-cinema sequence enthusiastically scored by former winner Justin Hurwitz, but the winner in this category almost always hails from a best-picture nominee, so I’m picking “All Quiet on the Western Front,” with its dread-soaked three-tone motif from Volker Bertelmann.
Sound
✓ “All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Batman”
“Elvis”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Though “Top Gun: Maverick” had movie theaters rattling with its high-octane sound design, I’m projecting another win for “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which has several sequences that hinge on sound or its absence. (It’s even got a sound-related title!)
Editing
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Elvis”
✓ “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Tár”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Top Gun: Maverick” also can’t be counted out here, since films with significant action sequences often perform well in this category, but “Everything Everywhere” has its fair share of action, plus plenty of showy, rapid-fire toggling between multiverses that should earn it the win.
Production Design
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
✓ “Babylon”
“Elvis”
“The Fabelmans”
The sets in “Babylon” are so grand that they should have received top billing over Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie. If Damien Chazelle’s costly flop manages one Oscar win, it’ll be here.
Costume Design
“Babylon”
✓ “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”
With the “Black Panther” franchise, can Ruth Carter go two for two? The veteran costume designer already won an Oscar for the first superhero film and somehow managed to outdo herself on the second, though she’ll face stiff competition from the showy period costumes of “Elvis” and “Babylon.”
Makeup and Hairstyling
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“The Batman”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Elvis”
✓ “The Whale”
Once again, voters will compare Brendan Fraser’s prosthetic-aided transformation with Austin Butler’s embodiment of Elvis through different eras. Since Fraser played so many buff hunks in the early part of his career, his makeup job has a jolt of pop-cultural frisson that should put “The Whale” over the top.
Visual Effects
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
✓ “Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Batman”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Expect “Avatar” to go two for two: The first film won this award in 2010, and the sequel managed to better its visuals in astonishing ways.
Animated Short
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
“The Flying Sailor”
“Ice Merchants”
✓ “My Year of Dicks”
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”
My fellow pundits are predicting a win for “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse,” but it reminded me too much of “Robin Robin,” another British short about cute talking animals that was last year’s Oscar front-runner until it lost to the far more adult “The Windshield Wiper.” That’s why I’m going to go out on a limb and pick “My Year of Dicks,” a witty, inventively animated short about a teenage girl ready to lose her virginity. (How much fun would it be for the Oscar presenter to read that title off the envelope?)
Documentary Short
✓ “The Elephant Whisperers”
“Haulout”
“How Do You Measure a Year?”
“The Martha Mitchell Effect”
“Stranger at the Gate”
Malala Yousafzai has been a consistent presence in award-season ballrooms while promoting “Stranger at the Gate,” a talking-head documentary about religious intolerance on which she served as an executive producer. But “The Elephant Whisperers” is so visually ravishing and transporting that I think it can trump even Malala’s star power. Anyone who voted for “My Octopus Teacher” two years ago is liable to fall in love with these gentle, orphaned elephants and the charming Indian couple who takes care of them.
Live-Action Short
“An Irish Goodbye”
“Ivalu”
“Le Pupille”
“Night Ride”
✓ “The Red Suitcase”
Voters often gravitate toward topicality in the shorts categories and the tense “The Red Suitcase,” about an Iranian girl trying to evade the man she’s been sent to marry, has the political heft to go all the way.
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